Crop production changes due to projected temperature increase
In this project, we are working on simulating crop yields under future climate scenarios. We first simulated tomato production based on CMIP5 data, which was published in the Nature Food Journal (https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00560-5), and now are working on future beer production using CMIP6 data.
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In our first simulations, we found out that the processing tomato production of the three main producing countries is set to decrease by an overall 6% by 2050 under projected climate scenarios, with little changes for the RCP2.6 but more severe for the RCPs 7.0 and 8.5. An ensemble of five GCMs projected that by mid- and end of the century, the global air temperatures will rise between 3 to 5°C, respectively.
Even under current agronomic and technological conditions, without adaptation, tomato yield in California might not be subject to heavy yield reduction as it depends on the GCM considered. For example, results of this study show that even under RCP8.5 in 2050 the tomato yield would be reduced by only 2% if only GCM1,3,4 are considered, against a -13% if all the five GCMs are considered. Such discrepancy highlights the importance of using multiple GCMs and RCPs use to inform stakeholders about the uncertainty of climate impacts.
Employing a comparable framework, we are leveraging CMIP6 future scenarios in conjunction with the DSSAT model to simulate the global response of barley to anticipated climatic changes. To facilitate this endeavor, we compiled and formulated gridded global inputs. Through a parallel and spatial execution of the model on a High Performance Computer (HPC), we harnessed a Python-based gridded modeling framework. This dynamic setup enabled us to orchestrate simulations on a global scale. sing this set of simulations, we are attempting to understand how future beer production will be affected by the changing climate.
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